Report of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine on the Middle Corridor

2026-06-09

We present to you the report of the “Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine” on the “Middle Corridor” published on May 31, 2026:

In the near future, China plans to increase cargo turnover with Europe through the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR, “Middle Corridor”), which bypasses the territory of the Russian Federation and passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. The total length of the route exceeds 4,250 km, and its longest section passes through the territory of Kazakhstan.

Logistics along this corridor is considered more difficult than transit through Russia, as it combines rail transportation, port infrastructure, ferry crossings and complex customs procedures between several states. However, Beijing and Astana are actively developing this project. The main reasons are the toxicity, sanctions and unreliability of the Russian Federation, as well as the desire to reduce the currently unstable maritime routes.

To implement these plans, the company "Kazakhstani Railways" (KTZ) announced its intention to invest about $ 10 billion in the modernization of railway, port and terminal infrastructure by 2030. In 2026, it is planned to build 900 km of new railway lines. In particular, about 300 km on the “Ayagoz-Bakhti” section, which will create a third railway crossing on the Chinese border. This will make it possible to increase the carrying capacity of this direction from 55 million to 100 million tons per year by 2030. To eliminate existing “bottlenecks” on the water, KTZ is investing more than 100 million US dollars in six new cargo ships that will operate between the ports of Aktau, Kursk and Baku.

Against this background, KTZ is preparing an initial public offering (IPO) of shares in 2026, with a possible listing in London, Hong Kong and Kazakhstan. The funds raised will be used to upgrade the rolling stock and develop routes.

According to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Association, the volume of cargo transported along the corridor amounted to 2.76 million tons in 2023, 4.48 million tons in 2024, and 4.12 million tons in 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, about 173 trains, each with 55 containers, passed along the route. The KTZ’s annual target is 600 trains, and in 2027 this figure may increase by another 67%. According to analysts, when the TITR (“Middle Corridor”) is fully operational, Russia will finally lose its status as a key transit hub between Asia and Europe, which will result in billions of dollars in losses for it.

Dato Gochava, Professional Railwaymen’s Club

Source: szru.gov.ua